CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-08-05T16:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-08-05T16:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/40388/-1
CME Note: Faint CME seen to the W in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1, and NE in STEREO A COR2. Source is the M4.4 flare from AR 14168 centered (N04W07) starting around 2025-08-05T15:50Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Dimming is observed southwest of the flare site in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, and post-eruptive arcades begin to form in the flare location around 2025-08-05T16:50Z. This CME may have been deflected towards the Northwest, as this Active Region is situation to the Northwest of a large coronal hole. CME Arrival: This CME likely had a glancing blow at L1 around 2025-08-08T23:46Z. This was preceded by a CIR starting around 2025-08-08T06:30Z and associated coronal hole high speed stream. Arrival characterized by a rotation in magnetic field components, including Bz reaching approximately -14.8nT. Characterized by a decrease in temperature and no clear change in density during the CME's passage. Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 560 km/s to approximately 480 km/s, and remained around 480 km/s until 2025-08-09T15:25Z, where coronal hole high speed stream influence likely continued.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-08-08T23:46Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-08-08T12:00Z (-8.0h, +8.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs
CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s): 570
Longitude (deg): 10
Latitude (deg): 6
Half-angular width (deg): 30
Notes:
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2025 Aug 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 07-Aug 09 2025 is 6.00 (NOAA Scale
G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 07-Aug 09 2025
Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09
00-03UT 1.33 4.67 (G1) 5.00 (G1)
03-06UT 1.33 6.00 (G2) 4.33
06-09UT 1.33 4.33 3.67
09-12UT 2.33 3.67 4.00
12-15UT 2.33 3.00 3.00
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 3.33
18-21UT 2.67 3.67 3.67
21-00UT 4.33 4.00 4.00
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08-09
Aug due to influences from a CME that left the Sun on 05 Aug.
Lead Time: 72.77 hour(s)Difference: 11.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-08-05T23:00Z
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